In speculating, like driving, staying in your lane matters. If you drift—into areas you haven’t studied akin to switching lanes without looking—bad things can happen. I don’t pretend to know the ins and outs of tariffs or macro trends I haven’t dug into. And I suggest you don’t either—unless you're truly an expert.
Same goes for calling bottoms. If you haven’t studied market turns over the last 100 years, think twice. And I say turns, not bottoms. Turns take time. They give you room to manage risk. The COVID crash was a turn. Bottoms can happen in a single day and are nearly impossible to catch.
You’re going to hear the word “capitulation” a lot now. Stats will start sounding like gospel. For example, did you know Friday had the biggest retail selling in the first 2.5 hours—ever? And for the first time, hedge funds and retail were both big net sellers. VIX spiked above 40. Fear and Greed index hit 4. Feels like capitulation, right?
Maybe. Maybe not.
But have you actually studied how markets turn? How to manage risk? How to find the right themes, sectors, and stories?
If not, you’re gambling.
You can make a case for valuation. I can counter with fair value being lower. You might say “good enough.” Round and round it goes. Personally, I don’t buy on value—I know I won’t sit through a big drawdown. That’s not my style.
Trading turns is something I’ve done for over 20 years—and studied for longer. After the COVID crash, I started picking up leading tech stocks within a week of the lows and posted about it publicly in a piece titled I Wanna Bet. It worked out. I also avoided most of 2022’s damage. That’s not bragging—it’s just proof it’s possible with real study, common sense, and discipline.
This time is hard, as they always are. Headlines can flip the script fast—tariffs raised, lifted, or renegotiated. Some are posting of a 1987 style crash. Many think now is the time to think more, and I would argue it’s the exact time to think less. Slow is smooth and smooth is fast. There will be a few who nail the moving pieces of the next two weeks and make fortunes off the bottom. Many more will be marred and scarred for life. Some will take it slow, knowing through experience there will be plenty of time to make our cut once a tradeable turn develops. That is the peaceful way to play.
So I’ll stay in my lane and highlight a few names that look interesting for different reasons while watching for a possible turn. Anything can happen, but I will always stick to my process of strong names with good fundamentals showing relative strength with a story behind them.
There are a few ways to approach this:
Buy the dip and hold. Valuations look “better” now. You will hear a lot of “ MELI trading at x cash flow, or AMZN P/E hasn’t been this low in X years”.
Personally, I am not an investor. This has little interest to me
Look for beaten-down names that could bounce if tariffs ease. Think ONON (90% of shoes, 60% of apparel from Vietnam, which wants tariffs lowered), or ANF, NKE, LULU, JPM. Some of these could work.
A little more interesting as playing and trading fear and mistakes of others
Focus on what didn’t break. Look for names that should have sold off but held firm. Not safe havens—real outliers. The beach balls. The next leaders. The story stocks.
Where passion meets fun for me. That’s my lane.
Lets take a look
Two clear names are PLTR and TSLA
Sure, both names were deeply red Friday, but they were holding up very well on the mass selloff Thursday. Also, TSLA is still above the March low - Showing tons of RS while PLTR has already had a nice decline and is also trying to hold the March low.
Both have tremendous narratives behind them from AI to data and robotics. Whether that matters or not, I don’t know, but I am aware of them.
If you don’t like these two names, I think the idea of finding names that should have broken down with the market but didn’t is a great pond to fish in. If you look at almost any other large cap name (META AMZN JPM etc) their chart will look like the indexes with a nasty TWO day selloff breaking well below the March lows. But not these twos
OLLI and BJ
Two names that might be getting front ran before a possible recession or inflation picks up. Yes, they both sold off Friday, but have escaped the wrath of the trade wars thus far, both showing great RS with some nice tailwinds in place. Again, if you don’t like these names, I think anything in this theme (budget friendly) is something to look at.
TGTX and NUTX
Both names holding key levels after great earnings gaps. TGTX with a nice pullback to the breakout pivot and NUTX shrugged off the pain on Friday and almost went green after its massive Power Gap on earnings. Two names I am watching very closely.
CELH and DERM
CELH is still over 6o% off its highs but has possibly started to turn the corner. They have announced some interesting business deals of late and sentiment in this name might be shifting. Plus, its showing tremendous RS after its massive earnings gap late Feb. Its bucking up against a key pivot, but if we get a rally in the markets, this is one I want to jump on. DERM is a much smaller name with a heavy focus on rosacea treatment. They have a new drug out and will start marketing it soon. It broke out Friday on heavy volume while everything else was getting smoked. A name to watch and one I might post a deeper look at.
and lastly
RKT and ONON
Lower rates incoming? RKT might think so on this high-volume breakout. IF, and a big IF, rates come down, you might see a lot of activity pick back up in the housing sector. If you look at Z COMP RDFN they might be sniffing this out also, bucking the trend of the last two days.
So many people are locked in with lower rates and might take the opportunity to move without having to double their interest rate. With mortgage, appraisal, title, a search platform and other services, this might be a key play outside the tariff zone and another one of my favorite thematic ideas.
And lastly, ONON. 90% of their shoes and 60% of their apparel coming from Vietnam (who already conceded they want to bring tariffs down), they might have just sidestepped the tariff situation. It’s also bouncing hard off a technical level going back years (this is a weekly chart) and could provide a decent idea. However, their merchandise is a little expensive and heading into a recession, not one I want to really size up on.
Conl:
That is how I am looking at things. Not trying to catch a bottom per say, but looking for new themes emerging through price action (just like off the covid lows). New leading groups and ideas will present themselves before the worst of it is done. This could change, but I like these themes (rates, recession, beach balls) and will continue to modify my watchlist as new developments happen. I am in no hurry, but I am getting the itch to bet.
GL
-NS