Bullish Growth Stocks
Update and some "rare" finds
Lets first update our previous note on animal testing phase out. The first real company to show momentum is CERT.
Yesterday, Certara (CERT) dropped preliminary Q1 earnings — and simultaneously positioned itself as a key player in the FDA’s historic shift away from animal testing. Here's the full breakdown.
💰 Q1 Preliminary Earnings Snapshot
Total Revenue: $106M (+10% YoY)
Software: $46.4M (+18% YoY)
Services: $59.6M (+4% YoY)
Bookings: $118M (+12% YoY)
Software bookings grew 22%, services up 7%
Adj. EBITDA: $33M–$35M vs. $29.1M a year ago
Chemaxon (acquired in late 2024) contributed $5.9M in revenue and $4.9M in bookings.
🔁 Capital Return + Strategy Shifts
$100M Share Buyback Authorized
Arsenal Capital committed to a 1-year lock-up of CERT shares they acquired from EQT
Regulatory Services Segment: Certara is reviewing this unit and is in early discussions with third parties about strategic options
🔮 FY2025 Guidance (Reaffirmed)
Revenue: $415M–$425M
Adj. EBITDA Margin: 30–32%
Adj. EPS: $0.42–$0.46
Share Count: ~162M–164M
🚫 FDA Animal Testing Update: Certara Goes All-In
Certara didn’t just react to the FDA’s new policy phasing out animal testing — they launched a full platform to ride the wave:
🔬 Non-Animal Navigator™ was unveiled to help drug developers reduce reliance on animal testing and adopt New Approach Methodologies (NAMs).
Key tools:
Simcyp Simulator®
Monoclonal Antibody (mAb) QSP models
AI-powered biosimulation
Regulatory strategy guidance aligned with the FDA roadmap
💡Certara noted that their models often outperform animal testing in predictive power — especially for the thousands of mAbs and ADCs in development.
📅 They’re hosting a webinar April 30th @ 11am ET on how to adopt NAMs in drug development. Register here → certara.com/webinar
🧠 My Take
This isn’t just earnings — it’s a narrative shift. CERT is aligning with regulators, adding real tech (AI + biosimulation), and anchoring themselves into a secular trend: replacing outdated animal testing with smarter, faster, scalable modeling.
They have:
Regulatory tailwinds (FDA roadmap)
Product-market fit (biosimulation + mAbs)
Strategic capital decisions (buybacks + lock-up)
And optionality with their regulatory business
📌 I'm watching for follow-through momentum — especially if they re-rate as a “non-animal testing” platform play.
The weekly chart above does show CERT is in a downtrend, but trying to break the downtrend line and possibly reverse higher. I am already in this name and will be adding on pullbacks and consolidations.
Rare Earths, Deep Sea Metals & The New Resource Arms Race
Over the weekend, President Trump unveiled plans to stockpile deep-sea critical metals — a move with big implications for U.S. industry, national security, and global markets.
Let’s break down why this matters — and which stocks could benefit.
🌍 Why Rare Earths & Strategic Metals Matter
These aren’t just rocks — they’re the building blocks of the future.
Critical metals like cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper, and rare earth elements are essential to:
EV batteries & grid storage
Wind turbines & solar panels
Fighter jets, lasers, and missile guidance
Smartphones & semiconductors
The U.S. is dangerously dependent on China for processing these materials, getting around 90% of our supply from them. Even if the trade war ends today, I do not see how the US will be able to depend on China for mission critical supplies moving forward. This, IMHO, is just getting started.
Trump’s move is a signal: the next commodity war may be underway.
🔥 Featured Stocks in the Spotlight
🏗️ MP Materials (MP)
Operates the only rare earth mine in the U.S. (Mountain Pass, CA)
Recently began commercial production of NdPr metal in Texas
YTD Gain: +76%
Catalysts:
Strategic reserve funding
Rising U.S.-China tensions
Locking in U.S.-based supply
📌 This is your pure-play domestic pick — and it’s already running.
🌊 The Metals Company (TMC)
Focused on deep-sea mining polymetallic nodules from the Pacific
Rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese
YTD Gain: +150%
Catalysts:
U.S. legislation backing seabed mining
Tension between green energy and ESG: can we mine the sea to save the sky?
📌 This is your moonshot. Speculative but high beta exposure to the future of extraction.
📊 REMX ETF (VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF)
Diversified exposure to rare earth & critical metal companies
Includes MP, Lynas, Albemarle, and others
YTD Gain: +6%
Catalysts:
Global supply chain rewiring
Commodity supercycle narratives
Hedge against China risk
📌 This is your broad-based play if you want exposure without single-stock risk.
🧠 The Bigger Idea: A Resource Nationalism Supertrend
This isn’t just a U.S. story.
Europe is scrambling to secure battery minerals
China just restricted rare earth exports
India is investing in lithium refining
Seabed claims are being staked globally
If semiconductors were the oil of the 2010s, critical minerals are the uranium of the 2020s — scarce, strategic, and increasingly political.
🏁 My Positioning
I’m tracking MP for potential breakout continuation, holding TMC as a thematic flyer, and watching REMX for a possible rotational bid. I am already long all three but will love to add once they calm down. As of right now, they are running hard to the upside and need time to digest the move, but dont take your eye off the ball.
I’ll be watching upcoming legislation and earnings calls closely — this narrative has legs.
More soon.
DISC - Just to remind everyone, I am not a trade service. I do not tell you to buy or sell, and I will never charge for my information. I do this full time and put out brief note to you for idea generation. I make all my income to support my family of 4 off investing/trading. I do not hype myself up. I am also extremely busy trading and with life, so my notes are only intended to be starting points for you.
If you like an idea, dig in deeper. That is the only way you will build conviction.
Hope this helps,
—NS